Emerging from lockdown: modelling, outputs and assumptions

The latest modelling by the Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning’s Transport, Health and Urban Design Research Lab at the University of Melbourne has laid out the possible scenarios for how Covid-19 restriction easing could play out in Victoria.

Flinders Street Station

Victoria has recently experienced a second wave of infections. Outside Australia, New Zealand, and Taiwan, which have pursued aggressive suppression and elimination strategies, these have been common.

Many countries around the world have never emerged from their first wave or our now experiencing a second wave.

Second waves have typically occurred following premature easing of restrictions, with jurisdictions underestimating just how challenging it is to maintain control with even low numbers of infections.

The research modelled several policy scenarios which the government could then use to inform their decision about the way forward for Victoria.

The modelling showed that waiting until there is an average of 5 Covid-19 cases per day a fortnight – or 70 cases total - reduces the chance of increased restrictions before Christmas to just 3 in 100.

Ultimately, a wide range of different scenarios could play out over the coming months in Victoria. The exact path will depend on policy decisions, how well Victorians can follow public health advice – and luck.

Download the full Modelling Summary PDF here

Download the Modelling Detail & Appendices here

Download the Emerging From Lockdown PDF here